Author: Will Blears

by Will Blears Will Blears 3 Comments

30 Days to make a sale – Goals & Validation – Day 1

Welcome to the first day of the first case study, in the first week of the first month of 2016.

Whew! We have some pretty awesome records.

Today we are going to start by looking at business goals with the majority of the focus being on revenue and how you validate whether a niche can sustainably achieve your revenue goal for the niche website.

If you haven’t already, you can check out the structure of this case study right here.

OK, so let’s get started – I’ve spent a lot of months (this has been in the planning for over a year) on how to structure this case study and how to structure each day and yet here I am still not convinced the approach I will take to trying to put across the information and teach those who are reading will be the most effective. However, it’s got to the point where I need to simply start and I can tailor the layout and structure as we go along and as I receive feedback.

This case study is going to follow along from Spencer, Perrin and Jake’s Niche Site Project 3, there are thousands of people who are following NSP3 and I think it’s perfect timing for me to begin my own case study. For those who are following NSP3 will have come to realise they all have their own style and their own experience and well my style is also different – there are several ways to do each step of the journey and everyone has their preference, it’s up to you to trial them out and find out which you think is most effective and efficient for you.

Just to explain, this case study is the first part in a 3-part series:

Once the initial 30 days has been completed, we will move on to the 6 month case study. I’ve broken it down this way for a couple of reasons, but mainly because I want to help those who have yet to feel the amazing sensation of making your first dollar online. Secondly, I think it’s easier to comprehend and to take on board when it’s focused around 3 particular goals at different stages of the journey.

Before you begin conducting Market Research (day 2)…

It’s incredibly important to get some things clear before you kickoff and these are your goals.

Whether this is your first niche affiliate website or your tenth, it doesn’t matter – you will still need to have specific goals in mind.

So, ask yourself a couple of questions:

  • Am I trying to build a brand or simply make some monies?

There is absolutely no issue with simply trying to make money from the website and giving little regard to building a brand, we’re not all trying to build the next Google, at least not yet. I think this first point comes down to where you are in life from an IM experience perspective as well as financially, career-wise and so on.

Think long and hard about this initial question, build a brand with long-term goals compared to simply trying to hit a certain monthly revenue figure so you have additional revenue streams, or to help you move away from full-time employment, to fund backpacking, what ever it might be get this clear from the get go.

  • Niche or Authority?

This can be quite confusing, especially since everyone talks about (including myself) building an Amazon affiliate site as generally being a niche website. Yet, a niche website can also be an authority within it’s niche…so yeah, a stupid choice of words I think.

To simplify this let’s just say the following:

Niche site = maximum 100 pages of content

Authority site = maximum (unlimited) generally 500+ pages

The reason I am splitting them by the number of pages, is more based on the size of the market and the amount of pages you can publish on a website should have a pretty direct correlation with the size of the market.

Example: creating a niche website around weight lifting gloves would probably be extremely difficult to expand above 100 pages of content. Where as, building a website around weight lifting could easily surpass 500 pages of content.

  • How much revenue do I want to make from this website?

I know it might sound like a silly question. But, I am being serious. This is a really, really, really important question to ask your self and it will also be a question you need to recall upon when you are doing the market research.

Experience has taught me that not every niche website is built equally, definitely from a revenue point of view. Therefore, you need to think about how much you want to make from the website per month at 6 months, 12 months and when it’s fully built or at least to the point where it’s established.

Our aim is:

  • To make at least one sale within the first 30 days (30 days from today).
  • To make at least $500 per month consistently by month 6.
  • To make at least $2,000 per month by month 12.

It’s important to consider the above, because if we go back to our example of our niche website about weight lifting gloves compared to our authority website about weight lifting. It could be quite difficult to generate $2,000 per month from a niche website which solely focuses it’s attention towards weight lifting gloves only.

Why?

You need to do the math.

Note: I have a couple of Excel templates I’ve used in the past to help with the calculations below, you can check one of them out right here.

How to use the Amazon keyword revenue planner

Product AOV * Amazon Commission Rate = Commission Per Sale
Target Monthly Revenue / Commission Per Sale = Target Number of Sales
Target Number of Sales / 30 (days in the month) = Target Daily Sales
Target Daily Sales * 10% (forecasted conversion rate) = Target Daily Amazon Clicks
Target Daily Amazon Clicks / 30% (forecasted website to Amazon CTR) * 100 = Target Daily Traffic

At this point you need to forecast what the the conversion rate from amazon click to conversion will be – I usually predict between 5% – 10% for this let’s use 10%. Then, once you have the number of daily Amazon clicks you will then need to use a forecasted website to Amazon Click Through Rate (CTR) let’s use 30% (I usually predict between 20% – 40%)

  • AOV: $20
  • ACR: 7.5%
  • C: $1.50
  • TMR: $2,000
  • TNS: 1,333
  • TDS: 44.4
  • TDAC: 444
  • TDT: 1,480

By doing this calculation you can quickly see whether or not a niche will be lucrative to the point of what you are aiming for. For the example above we will need 1,480 unique visitors per day to hit $2,000 per month in revenue and this is based on 30% of these unique visitors clicking through to Amazon and 10% of those users actually purchasing a pair of weight lifting gloves for $20.

Now, when you come to do the keyword research you might look at 1,480 unique visitors per day and think it’s nothing, however I’ve done some extremely quick analysis in to the example niche and on an initial basis I highly doubt by targeting just ‘weight lifting glove’ related keywords only and focusing a website solely on this topic you would be able to achieve this revenue per month.

Note: I said achieve this revenue, not this amount of daily visitors. I don’t want to make this more complex than it already is, but the type of keyword we are discussing for the example above are ‘buyer relayed keywords’ these are keywords where the users intent is to purchase.

For example: ‘best weight lifting gloves’, ‘weight lifting glove reviews’, ‘best lifting gloves’ e.t.c

The reason I say it will be unlikely is because the market demand for this product doesn’t look large enough to support the 1,480 unique visitors per day (44,000 unique visitors per month).

To conclude our first day of the 30 days to make a sale case study: Be sure the market you are looking at is validated based on the your goals and answers to the three questions above. Brand or Non-Brand, Niche or Authority & Revenue Target.

So before you go on to the next step of researching a market, have a think about what type of website you are looking to build. Whether you are looking to build a website that simply generates revenue or if you are looking to build a website which has the potential to grow in to a reputable, authoritative brand. More importantly, take in to consideration the revenue you would be looking to generate from the website and use this information when you continue on to market research which will help in validating whether or not that niche will be sustainable for hitting your revenue goals.

Ready for day 2? Proceed right here!

by Will Blears Will Blears 8 Comments

SEM Rush Daily Vs Monthly Visitors

Update: SEM Rush staff ‘Anastasia’ has confirmed that SEM Rush is in fact tracking monthly and not tracking daily. Please read below for more information.

Please read: this is not supposed to come across as me being a d**k or trying to outshine or call out anyone. It’s simply meant for this Facebook group and basically a way of trying to reduce the amount of misinformation that beginners soak up when entering this market…I know as I’ve been there, you are inundated with information and it’d be useful to make sure everything you learn is correct.

P.S: If I come across as arrogant, I am sorry – not sure how to change that – had very little sleep and wrote this as a breather from what I’ve been working on for the last 18 hours.

Dun dun durrrrr.

The question we have all been pondering. Is SEM Rush’s organic traffic data daily statistics or monthly statistics?

Finally, the mystery has been solved.

OK, enough of that – I’ve always considering SEM Rush organic traffic data to be reporting on a monthly basis, however I’ve heard in the past that people had thought it was daily and I generally just ignored it. Yet, recently both Spencer, Perrin and a bunch of others begun to say it was daily which got me wondering, was I wrong…all of those years spent analysing data and I was making a rookie error.

So, I began to make an investigation in to whether it was daily or monthly since the SEM Rush interface it’s self is pretty poor at explaining this.

Let’s begin with – the evidence clearly supports the argument for SEM Rush reporting monthly statistics not daily and evidence is below…

This is starting to sound like an episode of Suits…I will try and change the tone now.

SEM Rush Organic Interface

SEM Rush Organic Traffic Daily Vs Monthly

In the little black box it says:

The number of users expected to visit the website in the following month on condition that average monthly organic traffic stays relatively the same.

For Amazon.com SEM Rush is saying it receives 317 million visitors per month from organic traffic. To support this, let’s take a look at Similar Web:

Similar Web Vs SEM Rush

Before you begin to get lost, this is just the overall amount of traffic Amazon.com receives monthly based on Similar Web data.

The next shows the channel attribution for Search, then split by organic and paid:

Similar Web Vs SEM Rush Organic Traffic

For the sake of this post, let’s just say 25% of the 1.1 billion visitors that Similar Web is reporting come from Organic Search, that would be 275 million visitors which isn’t too far from SEM Rush’s prediction of 317 million.

I know it’s 42 million visitor difference which is probably more than everyone who reads this monthly visitors for all of our websites combined…but in the field of data and analytics at this level a 15% margin is pretty darn good.

So far we have highlighted that SEM Rush says their traffic is monthly and when compared to Similar Web it’s a 15% difference in traffic from organic search.

Next, let’s have a look at that darn graph on SEM Rush which I think is the main cause of this mass confusion.

SEM Rush Organic Traffic Chart

The graph above is a breakdown of month by month traffic for Amazon.com taken from SEM Rush. You will notice that the graph highlights November as receiving 318 million visitors.

SEM Rush Daily Chart

The next chart is again from SEM Rush for Amazon.com and is a snapshot of traffic by day for a month. This is where SEM Rush confuses people I think, the chart shows daily traffic of 316 million visitors, which is crazy. Basically, SEM Rush should just get rid of the daily breakdown as it’s well serving no purpose except to confuse and trick people.

Question: If SEM Rush was reporting visitors daily, then why would the month total equal the same as the daily

Food for thought: If the daily breakdown was correct, that would mean approximately 100% of the US population visits Amazon every single day.

OK, so far we have highlighted that SEM Rush says their traffic is monthly and when compared to Similar Web it’s a 15% difference in traffic from organic search. As well as the fact that SEM Rush’s month by month chart and daily chart show the same number of visitors.

Last piece of the puzzle

I couldn’t conclude this without actually talking to SEM Rush themselves as it just wouldn’t be solid and I would hate myself for adding more confusion on the top of what is already out there. I spoke to Anastasia at SEM Rush, who sent me the following E-mail when I asked her this question:

QuestionThe daily chart in the organic traffic section of SEM Rush. Is the number per day or per month?

The estimation of traffic that we provide is a monthly figure, the estimated amount of people who visited the website from the first two pages of Google results for the keywords in our database.

Update: Email reply two, absolutely confirming my thoughts:

The number that you see when you look for a particular date there represents the estimated traffic for the previous 30 days. Hope this is helpful!

Conclusion

By now, I am hoping we all agree that SEM Rush is in fact reporting organic traffic by month and not by day. If not, leave a comment below and I will continue to explore this issue and if needs be go directly to the founder of SEM Rush for an answer!

A couple of points I’d like to make

Whether you thought SEM Rush organic traffic was daily or monthly really doesn’t matter. If I look at a handful of my websites and friends websites the organic data is sporadic, all over the place! For some websites it’s reporting pretty accurate figures and for others it’s completely off the grid by approximately 15 fold.

Also the top section of SEM Rush’s organic interface in my opinion is the least important. If I am hunting for a new market to enter by the time I jump in to SEM Rush I’ve already got pretty strong validation for entering that market in the first place. All I am doing now is competitor analysis to see what keywords my main competitors are ranking for and which pages of their website are the most popular. This is significantly more important than what SEM Rush (or any other tool for that matter) is reporting the organic traffic of the site to be on a monthly basis, because of these two things:

  1. It can be massively inaccurate therefore the data shouldn’t even be applied to ‘whether or not you enter a market’.
  2. You have the monthly search volumes of every keyword right below this first metric in SEM Rush which is based on significantly more accurate data (Google’s own).

Next time you are doing market research or keyword research take SEM Rush (or any other tools) overall site traffic prediction with a tiny pinch of salt and instead focus your research around keywords, competitor pages and the overall market as a whole.

If anyone has any questions or suggestions or wants to point out where I am wrong then just post below.

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